Swing Trade Approach:

So here’s the thing, I closed out Royal Caribbean (RCL), my last position at an 11.4% profit today. The sell-off today was demoralizing as my longest holding swing-trade of two months to the day was knocked out of my portfolio. Granted, I took home 11.4% on the second half and +12.6% on the first half, and all of this was on an aging cruise liner. But dammit, I wanted to hold until next week, right before earnings! Nonetheless, the profits were really good, so I should just stop complaining. 

I also got into a couple of trades – three actually – one short and two longs. Mix that in with the 1/2 position of RCL I got out of, and you have a slight increase in my long exposure today. Plenty more long positions I am watching heading into tomorrow. 

Indicators

  • Volatility Index (VIX) – Got a respectable pop out of VIX of 6.2% to 12.85. Not much and easily fadable, considering the current market rally. Also the downtrend off of the August  highs, has yet to break. Don’t talk to me about the VIX rallying until that changes. 
  • T2108 (% of stocks trading above their 40-day moving average): Hard sell-off of 8% in the T2108. Now only 64% of stocks are trading above their 40-day moving average. Quite the dip, and back into consolidation of the past four months. 
  • Moving averages (SPX): Trading above all the major moving averages. 
  • RELATED: Patterns to Profits: Training Course

Sectors to Watch Today

Most sectors did nothing today, with Real Estate and Utilities the only sectors showing any strength at all. Energy – avoid at all costs. I don’t like it, I’m out of my energy holdings, and the sector as a whole keeps floundering in a big way. Industrials with Boeing (BA) getting punched in the gut and breaking $320, puts a damper on long term prospects for sector.
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My Market Sentiment

The market keeps leaving me wondering when will it finally give way to a market sell-off of notable proportions, but it doesn’t happen. And lets be honest, if the trade war and WW3 couldn’t bring the market down, I doubt that a head cold in China will. swing trading strategy outlook 578