My Swing Trading Approach
Flexibility over conviction. I want to play the market whichever direction it decides to take me. I don’t hold a strong conviction about this market either way, and as a result, I don’t want to have too much of my capital committed at once.
Indicators
- VIX – Sizable pop of 10% yesterday. But remains range bound over the last two-plus months. Very possible we see another move into the mid-20’s again, in the weeks ahead.
- T2108 (% of stocks trading below their 40-day moving average): Broke back below 50% yesterday, and a 12% one-day decline. Upward trend remains in place
- Moving averages (SPX): Failed to hold the 5 and 10-day moving averages early on, and then broke the 20-day moving average thereafter. Likely to test the 200-day MA in the coming days, possibly today.
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Industries to Watch Today
Energy remains the strongest sector still. Despite the sell-off yesterday, it is consolidating near the top of its rally highs. Utilities holding the line, not blasting higher, but holding strong despite the recent selling. Technology showing considerable weakness, and a possible head and shoulders pattern forming. 
My Market Sentiment
Based off the chart below, I have a hard time believing we won’t re-test the 200-day moving average and even support underneath, before ultimately bouncing yet again.
S&P 500 Technical Analysis
Current Stock Trading Portfolio Balance
- 1 Short Position
