My Swing Trading Strategy
I added one new trade yesterday, while getting stopped out of another. I’ll likely play it safe today ahead of tomorrow’s G-20 Summit between the U.S. and China and may also look to curb long exposure at some point today.
Indicators
- Volatility Index (VIX) – The declining trend-line from the 5/9 highs was tested for a third straight day, but was unable to break through it. I expect today to be somewhat of a quiet day on the indicator unless news breaks concerning trade talks with China.
- T2108 (% of stocks trading above their 40-day moving average): A surprising 15% bounce on the indicator, which is a ton considering SPX was only up 0.35% yesterday. Broke back above the declining trend line from mid-February.
- Moving averages (SPX): Broke back above the 10-day moving average yesterday, and then tested the 5-day MA, but unable to do the same.
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Sectors to Watch Today
Real Estate had a phenomenal bounce yesterday and led the entire market higher. Healthcare is trying to reassert itself after three straight days of declines and making the case for a bull flag pattern. Discretionary broke aback above three moving averages: 5, 10 and 50, and is coming out of its bull flag in the short-term, and in the intermediate time term, has a right shoulder of an inverse head and shoulders pattern that it is working on. Financials still working on a series of higher highs and higher lows, since the 6/3 bottom was put in place, as is Technology. Energy continues to consolidate, but that was the only sector to finish in the red yesterday, and is still a very difficult sector to trust. 
My Market Sentiment
Inverse head and shoulders pattern still intact, and managed to get a small bounce off of the neckline which was critical for keeping the pattern together. Follow through today will be critical as well.
S&P 500 Technical Analysis
Current Stock Trading Portfolio Balance
- 40% Long
