Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded 0.7% lower. 
  • European markets are trading 1.1% lower. 
  • US futures are trading 0.8% lower. 


Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Consumer Price Index (8:30), Jobless Claims (8:30), Empire State Manufacturing Survey (8:30), Treasury International Capital (9), Industrial Production (9:15), Housing Market Index (10), Philadelphia Fed Survey (10), E-Commerce Retail Sales (10), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30) 

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Significant gap-down to start today’s trading sessions that will break key levels of support. 
  • Most importantly is the support at 1676 that will be broken initially. It will be critical for the bulls to stage a rally off of the lows of the day. 
  • This will also confirm the head and shoulders pattern on the 30-minute chart for the SPX and a breakdown of consolidation of the daily chart. But the key of course is where it closes at. 
  • SPX is close to oversold conditions. Today’s open should be enough to reach those levels. 
  • Often times the gap downs are very difficult for the bears to sustain. Instead it often times leads to hard rallies off of the market lows that wipe out most or all of the day’s gains. Tread carefully. 
  • Today’s action if it can hold, will push August firmly into the negative for the markets. 
  • The SPX continues to go according to the playbook from 3/6-4/22 nearly perfectly. 
  • 1676 will continue to be the bigger-picture support level. Break and close below it, and you have a new lower-low in this market. 
  • I remain a buyer in this market. The opportunities to swing short are far too unpredictable, choosing to focus on the long side is the best way to manage risk and maximize profits at this juncture. 
  • Markets don’t care about the economy. That is not what is driving them. The markets only care about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 

My Opinions & Trades:

  • Sold HUM yesterday for a 1.8% gain. 
  • Sold MU for a 5.5% gain yesterday. 
  • Sold PNK at 22.16 for a 2.6% gain. 
  • Sold DECK for a -1.6% loss. 
  • Added two new positions yesterday. 
  • Currently 60% long/40% cash.  
  • Current Longs: CAB at 70.38, CMI at 121.60, BMRN at 64.70, FLR at 65.99
  • Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 8-15-13