Pre-market update (updated 8:00am eastern):

  • Europe is trading 0.2% lower.
  • Asian markets traded between break even up to +0.7% higher. 
  • US futures are flat. 

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Consumer Price Index (8:30am), PMI Manufacturing Index Flash (8:58am), Industrial Production (9:15am)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • We saw an orderly and continued pullback off of the intraday highs achieved on Wednesday. 
  • A blip of buying at the end of the day suggests that the bulls could be compelled to cover their short positions here. 
  • SPX tested the 50-day moving average yesterday and held. 
  • Volume remained steady. 
  • Reversal over the last two days occurred at the neckline of the previous triple top in the market. 
  • If the bears want to accelerate the selling, then price needs to get below 1406 and close below that level. 
  • 8-day exponential moving average has provided a lot of rising support for this trending market. A break and close below it, would be a cause for concern. Yesterday we managed to close just a shade above this level. 
  • There’s a negative divergence on the RSI and other similar indicators where it failed to make a higher high against the previous highs of this month. 
  • There’s an inverse head and shoulders pattern formed on SPX daily chart that is confirmed at 1422. 
  • Price action showing a downtrend off of the October highs was broken Monday on SPX. 
  • Current uptrend off of the November lows is steep, but not atypical for new rallies. Overtime the up-ward trend-line will flatten out some. 
  • Ideally for the bulls, if price action can close at or above 1429, the downtrend off of the September highs would be officially done and over with, as a new higher high would be established for the first time. 
  • Fiscal Cliff discussions continues to dominate the news. 
  • SPX currently has recaptured the 10, 20, 50, and 200-day moving averages. 
  • VIX closed above 16.

My Opinions & Trades:

  • Bought CMG at $278.00
  • Remain long SIG at $54.01, EW at $91.01, LULU at $73.01, BSBR at $7.03.
  • If the market begins to stabilize, I’ll get consideration to adding a new long position to the portfolio. 
  • Here is my real-time swing-trading portfolio and past-performance

Chart for SPX:

S and P 500 Market Analysis 12-14-12