Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded flat..
  • European markets are trading 1.1% lower.
  • US futures are trading 0.5% lower ahead of the market open. 


Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Consumer Price Index (8:30), Jobless Claims (8:30), PMI Manufacturing Index Flash (9:45), Philadelphia Fed Survey (10), Existing Home Sales (10), Leading Indicators (10), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Gap down to take place at the market open of some significance. The biggest question to be answered is whether the dip buyers come in and buy the dip off of the 10-day moving average as they have the last three times the MA was tested. 
  • If SPX breaks 2030 it would represent a break of key support and likely more weakness would follow. 
  • SPX action of late reminds me of the ensuing two days after it had made a new high on 9/19. Too early to say whether we are likely to see a heavy sell-off in the days ahead, but initial price reaction is the same. 
  • Volume slightly higher on SPY yesterday than what has been seen of late. 
  • VIX remained relatively unchanged at 13.96. 
  • FOMC Minutes had little to no effect on the market. 
  • Support on the 30-minute chart of SPX is at 2040. 
  • 5-day and 10-day moving average are converging which makes a break of both in one day much more possible and more significant too. 
  • Historically trend-lines that are steeper/greater than 45 degrees are nearly impossible to maintain over an extended period of time. 
  • The market doesn’t care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 


My Trades:

  • Did not add any new positions yesterday. 
  • Closed out TSLA at 247.44 for a 2.3% loss. 
  • Will consider adding 1-2 new long positions today if the dip buyers come in and buy the weakness. 
  • Remain long HUN at 24.73, UA at 68.60, FLEX at 10.98, INTC at 34.05, BA at 129.51.
  • 50% long / 50% cash. 
  • Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 11-20-14