Pre-market update:
- Asian markets traded 0.7% lower..
- European markets are trading 0.4% lower.
- US futures are trading 0.3% lower ahead of the market open.
Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Chicago Fed National Activity Index (8:30)
Technical Outlook (SPX):
- Strong bounce out of SPX on Friday recovering much of the losses from the Thursday sell-off.
- Volume was very strong on Friday and increasing the likelihood that the move was more than just a dead-cat bounce.
- SPX has regained the 10-day and 20-day moving average. The former doesn’t mean much, but overall the 20-day moving average has been a source of strength for the SPX to rally around.
- For the bears, a close below 1952 is very real and possible. If broken, it will confirm a short-term double top in the index.
- Additional key support levels for the SPX to hold in the future is 1944 and 1925.
- Very real chance that we may be entering into a period of consolidation between the 1950’s and 1980’s.
- Right now the buy-the-dip mentality still runs strong in this market, and this morning’s weakness could easily be bought up.
- VIX came crashing down more than 17% to 12.06 on Friday.
- Headline risk creeping into the market with the Malaysian airliner being shot down in Ukraine airspace and Israel’s ground offensive in gaza. Neither of which I think will have an extended impact on the market.
- If 1944 breaks SPX will have put in a lower-low and that is bearish.
- The market doesn’t care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up.
My Trades:
- Did not close out any positions on Friday.
- Added one new long position on Friday.
- Will look to add 1-2 new long positions today.
- Remain long AXL at $19.73, KATE at $38.10, LVLT at $45.49, AFL at $63.72.
- Remain short CMI at $151.71.
- 50% Long / 10% short / 40% Cash
- Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone
Chart for SPX:
