Technical Outlook:
- SPX pulled back yesterday to the 5-day moving average and bounced ever so slightly in the final 30 minutes of trading.
- Today the market is looking at a significant sell-off to start the day.
- It is important to remind yourself of what happened on Friday when the market sold off and the subsequent ‘buy the dip’ rally that ensued.
- Gap downs since the February bottom has been a nightmare for the bears to hold on to – more times than not it rallies instead.
- Essentially SPX is looking at a gap down towards the 10-day moving average which has been extremely solid for the market of late. A close below this MA would be a telling sign that the market is looking to suddenly roll over here.
- The market has hardly seen any correction over the last seven weeks – with only one of the weeks resulting in a lower close from the opening price.
- Since the start of this rally on 2/12, the S&P 500 has rallied 63% of the time.
- Extremely light volume reading yesterday – on par with the 3/28 reading that was the lightest of the trading year so far and nearly as bad as the Christmas Eve volume.
- To gauge the strength of the selling, for starters the market needs to break the lows from last wee which is at 2043 and then establish a lower-low by breaking the 3/24 lows at 2022.
- SPX 30 minute chart’s upward trend remains intact but could be broken with a move below the Friday’s lows.
- VIX saw a nice pop off of the test of the rising trend-line off of the July 2014 lows. A strong 7.8% move higher.
- T2108 also showed some concerning signs as well weakening more than what it has become accustomed to in recent weeks – dropped 4.5% down to 82.3%
- The downtrend off of the July highs becomes the next testing point for this market as it seeks push through its resistance at 2095 an back into the 2100’s.
- 2100 is also significant because a close above this level potentially jeopardizes the two-year long standing head and shoulders pattern that the market has had in development. A close above 2116 absolutely destroys the pattern.
- USO sold off for an ninth consecutive day and the tenth time in the last eleven trading sessions. It broke the Fibonacci 50% reetracement level and 50-day moving average.
- cks doing so.
- April has been bullish in nine of the last ten years.
- Yellen’s dovish outlook as it pertains to rate hikes has been, in large part, the reason for the massive rally off of the February lows.
- Support continues to come in on any and all tests of the 10-day moving average.
My Trades:
- Sold AMTD yesterday at $31.63 for a 0.1% gain.
- Did not add any new swing-trades yesterday.
- Currently 30% Long / 70% Cash
- Remain long TLT at $129.52, AMZN at $581.21, NFLX at $102.50.
- Will look to add 1-2 new additional positions today if dip buyers show any desire to buy up the early weakness.
- Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone
Chart for SPX:
