Technical Outlook:

  • Impressive follow through to the downside following Wednesday’s sell-off. 
  • SPX managed to break through the 10, 50, and most importantly the 20-day moving averages. 
  • Greece headlines still dominating the news right now, and rumors continuously spike the futures on every rumor that might be considered remotely positive. 
  • The head and shoulders pattern forming on SPX daily chart remains the biggest threat to the bulls. A close below 2072 will confirm the pattern. 
  • On the thirty minute chart, you also have a head and shoulders pattern (not the same one), that has confirmed, and could easily see a move to 2090 before encountering any support. 
  • SPY volume increased yesterday and is right at average levels,
  • Greece still remains atop of the market and what kind of deal, if any will be struck and that is the main source of risk facing this market. 
  • The Fed and when they will eventually raise rates also remains the focus of this market. 
  • VIX rose 5.7% to 14.01. Key resistance for VIX is at the 15.40’s. 
  • Bulls need to focus on getting back above Monday’s highs and ultimately all-time highs. 
  • The market doesn’t care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 


My Trades:

  • Added one short position yesterday. 
  • Did not close out any positions. 
  • 20% short / 80% cash. 
  • Remain long SDS at 19.97 (2x UltraShort on SPX)
  • Will look to add 1-2 new positions today to the portfolio. 
  • Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 6-26-15