Pre-market update:

  • European markets are trading 0.3% higher. 
  • Asian markets traded 0.5% higher.
  • US futures are trading 0.2% higher. 

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Jobless Claims (8:30), Philadelphia Fed Survey (10), Leading Indicators (10), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30), Bernanke Speaks (10:30), 

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • SPX continues the recent tradition of only allowing for a one-day pullback. 
  • Expect Bernanke to created some volatility for the markets one hour into the trading session when he starts speaking. 
  • It should be noted that over the last four trading sessions the market has consolidated between 1672 and 1684. 
  • Rising trend-line off of the 6/24 lows rises to 1667 as support for today .First line of defense today for any pullback in the general market. 
  • The attempt to breakout to all-time highs is being met with some resistance at this point. The good thing though is the market isn’t violently selling off after testing highs. Instead it just coils underneath. 
  • Volume slightly higher than what had been seen in recent days. 
  • Of concern is that there is really no significant key price support levels near current price action. 
  • Possible double top being formed on the SPX 30-minute chart. 
  • From trough to peak the SPX has risen about 124 points. A 38.2% Fibonnaci pullback would equate to a move back down to 1636.
  • This uptrend looks nearly the same as the one we saw on 4/19 and lasted until 5/19. I’m curious if it will lead to a similar extended pullback as a result. 
  • The SPX has typically risen in long winded streaks in 2013 where instead of the typical give-and-take that a market experiences, the bulls push higher with little in the way of obstacles. 
  • VIX dropped back into the 13’s.
  • Careful to note all the gaps that have formed on this uptrend off of the lows of 6/24. More times than not a market will ultimately come back and fill those gaps. 
  • Markets don’t care about the economy. That is not what is driving them. The markets only care about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 

My Opinions & Trades:

  • Added HRB at 30.19 yesterday. 
  • Sold QID for a -1% loss yesterday at 20.95. 
  • Current Longs: EMN at 73.58, QID at 21.17, CME at 76.53, SJM at 104.63, AAPL at 422.30, BDX at 99.98
  • May look to take gains in stocks that are stagnant and replace them with better setups today. 
  • Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 7-18-13