Pre-market update:

  • European markets are trading 2.1% higher. 
  • Asian markets traded 1.1% lower.
  • US futures are trading 0.5% higher.  

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Consumer Credit (3)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • SPX closed Friday on the underside of the 5/22 highs, descending trend-line. Finishing in the green today, will result in a break above the trend-line. 
  • Despite closing below the trend-line resistance, the SPX managed to break above the 20-day and 50-day moving average which was a solid milestone for the market. 
  • Also, a there is a steep rising trend-line off of the 6/24 lows, with support at 1617.
  • SPX shows clear breakout above the fray and consolidation that has taken place since 6/27. There is a strong likelihood that this market will continue to rally. 
  • Volume should pick up in the markets now that we are back to a normal trading week. 
  • VIX dropped back into the 14’s. 
  • Weekly SPX chart shows signs of breaking out of the current bull-flag pattern. 
  • Cup and Handle breakout on the SPX 30-minute chart. 
  • The one thing you are not seeing that typically accompanies a major market sell-off is continuous bad news coming out. We had the FOMC Statement and that has been it. 
  • I simply do not think the bears can keep driving this market lower without some form of a catalyst besides the tapering comments made before by the FOMC. 
  • Markets don’t care about the economy. That is not what is driving them. The markets only care about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 

My Opinions & Trades:

  • No new positions on Friday. 
  • Current Longs: WLP at 80, GS at 153.16, LPI at 20.28, GOOG at 872.67, V at 182.15, BCR at 108.70.  
  • I expect at this point to close out some existing positions that are trading well outside the upper Bollinger Band and tighten up on stops for remaining positions. I will also add some new setups today as well. 
  • Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 7-08-13