Pre-market update (updated 8am eastern):

  • European markets are trading 1.5% higher.
  • Asian markets traded 0.5% higher. 
  • US futures are trading slightly higher ahead of the opening bell. 

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (7:45am), Redbook (8:55am), ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (10am)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • SPX is on the verge of making new recovery highs. A push above 1530 would accomplish that. 
  • Yesterday’s move saw low volume levels. Particularly on the SPY. 
  • We saw the dip-buying come in full force after the first hour of early morning trading to erase the losses and finish much higher. 
  • The bears saw 1521 slip from their grasp and the bulls are close to regaining full-control of this market. 
  • Any respectable sell-off today, would immediately revive the bears and technically make the charts show some form of bearishness again. 
  • The gap up today offers the bears the best opportunity to legitimately push lower and create sustained intra-day weakness. It is the gap downs that ironically provide the bears with the most problems. 
  • We are coming in on overbought levels on SPX. Another day higher today, will likely do the job. 
  • On the previous channel from June through October last year, it was the third retest of the rising channel that finally broke, which is the same retest we are on right now in the SPX.
  • Both channels and the price action within are unbelievably similar in nature. 
  • VIX is just a shade from getting back into the 13’s. 
  • We haven’t seen a market pullback in excess of 4% since October/November time-frame. 

My Opinions & Trades:

  • No new trades on Monday
  • WIll start adding  new positions once it becomes clearer the direciton the market wants to take me. 
  • Remain Long ADBE at $38.88; Short HOG at $51.83, LVS at $51.63, TRI at $29.95. 
  • Here is my real-time swing-trading portfolio and past-performance

Chart for SPX:

S and P 500 Market Analysis 3-05-13