Technical Outlook:
- SPX almost had two days of consecutive selling. Instead in managed to rebound in afternoon trading and actually finish in the green.
- The last lat time the market saw two consecutive days of selling was on April 5th.
- SPX tested the 10-day moving average, held on, and rallied thereafter.
- QQQ, for the better part of 4 weeks has been stuck in a trading range. A drop below last week’s lows could jump start the acceleration to the downside.
- SPX has closed above the previous week’s lows for 10 straight weeks. The record is 13 weeks – as you can see, we are in some rare air here, and the likelihood that it persists isn’t very favorable.
- A break below 2073 on SPX would end the streak.
- There was relative weakness in the VIX yesterday despite the weakness in Nasdaq. Needs to stay above 13 today.
- USO failed to breakout and above recent highs, instead retracing much of Friday’s gains.
- SPX still has a set of higher-highs and higher-lows. But must guard against breaking 2073 in order to keep the current trend in place.
- Heavy news week – Amazon and Apple report earnings, to name a few, followed by Central Banking meetings from the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan. Finally you have GDP on Thursday.
- Volume on SPY ticked higher on Friday and came in at recent averages.
- It is very important to be aware of the potential for a strong pullback here and to manage your long position risk accordingly.
- April has been bullish in nine of the last ten years.
- Yellen’s dovish outlook as it pertains to rate hikes has been, in large part, the reason for the massive rally off of the February lows.
My Trades:
- Closed out SPXU at $27.55 on Friday for a 0.2% gain.
- Did not add any new trades on Friday. .
- Currently 20% Short / 80% Cash
- Remain short QQQ at $110.40, USO at $10.72.
- Should the market finally start to give up some of its recent gains, I will look to add more short exposure. Otherwise, I’ll have to follow the current trend.
- Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone
Chart for SPX:
