Technical Outlook:
- Strong day of follow through yesterday that saw SPX reclaim the 10 and 20-day moving averages.
- Downtrend off of the 12/29/15 highs was broken yesterday.
- Most concerning about the rally is the fact that the volume is non-existent. It was well below recent readings, and even less than yesterday’s low volume output.
- SPX is attempting to put together a double bottom narrative that is so far holding true. A close above 1940 on the index is key to change the tide of market sentiment.
- Small drop for VIX yesterday at 5.1% down to 24.11 and still very much elevated. I would have expected to see a bigger drop.
- Another major day for T2108 (% of stocks trading above the 40-day moving average) rising 35% to 31.00, which matches the closing highs from 2/4.
- SPX broke the 2/10 highs on the 30 minute chart and as a result established the first higher-high since 2/2.
- Be careful with trying to get heavily long at this juncture. The bounce appears very suspect at this point.
- Oil has put together a nice rally overnight in an attempt to recapture $30/barrel.
- Insane price movements every day being created by computer generated trading (HFT’s) in a highly volatile market marked with enormous headline risk.
- There is a lot of stop-loss hunting out there in the market, and being agile with getting in and out of positions quickly has been extremely important.
My Trades:
- Did not add any new swing-trades to the portfolio.
- Currently 100% Cash
- I want to see whether this market can hold the current gains since Friday or whether there will be a fade that provides me with an opportunity to short. I’m open to trading in either direction.
- Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone
Chart for SPX:
