Pre-market update (updated 8am eastern):

  • European markets are trading -0.3% lower.
  • Asian markets traded -0.9% lower. 
  • US futures are trading slightly lower ahead of the opening bell. 

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): None

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Friday represented another ‘buy-the-dip’ opportunity for the bulls, and at one point saw a 18 point rally on the SPX off of the intraday lows. 
  • For the fourth consecutive week, SPX finished the weekly chart with a doji candle. 
  • Despite rallying hard after Monday’s huge sell-off, the technicals of the daily chart have not improved in the bulls favor at this point.  Still looks notably bearish going forward. 
  • We are coming in on overbought levels on SPX. Another day higher today, will likely do the job. 
  • If the bulls can hit 1521 and stay above it, i think the that this becomes a legitimate rally point for the bulls to continue pushing higher. 
  • On the previous channel from June through October last year, it was the third retest of the rising channel that finally broke, which is the same retest we are on right now in the SPX.
  • Both channels and the price action within are unbelievably similar in nature. 
  • VIX is back in the 15’s. 
  • If we see a break in 1489 today of the rising channel, the next logical support level for the market rests at 1465. 
  • We haven’t seen a market pullback in excess of 4% since October/November time-frame. 
  • The channel that we are currently trading in looks very similar to the channel that we traded in last year from June through September. 

My Opinions & Trades:

Chart for SPX:

S and P 500 Market Analysis 3-04-13