Pre-market update (updated 9am eastern):

  • European markets traded flat/mixed. 
  • Asian markets traded -0.8% lower. 
  • US futures are trading slightly down ahead of the bell. 

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (7:45am), Redbook (8:55am), Consumer Credit (3pm)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Slight pullback in the SPX yesterday after, and consolidation over the past three days taking place at the highs or recent price action. 
  • We are well overbought on both short-term and long-term time frames. 
  • Volume over the last three trading sessions has been rather light and slightly below average. 
  • For the bulls, a pullback to 1448ish would keep things very bullish, but there remains the possibility that we could pullback to the trend-line off of those November lows. That price level would be somewhere around 1408 to 1415 as it stands currently. 
  • VIX continiues to weaken in recent days and now we are even below 14 which shows that there is not much fear right now in this market of possible downside swings. 
  • We closed below the new post-recovery highs that were made on Friday. 
  • There’s really no significant level of resistance for the market above 1466 until you get to 1501. 
  • It will take a significant move, but below 1398, the trend will be bearish. 
  • Be aware of upcoming news events and discussions that will permeate the markets: Debt Ceiling Debate, Fiscal Cliff Part II, Employment Recovery. 
  • We are hitting the upper band of a well-defined channel that the SPX has been trading in since the November lows. 
  • There is still a huge gap on the SPY chart that ultimately needs to be filled. 
  • 30-minute chart looks extremely over-extended. 

My Opinions & Trades:

Chart for SPX:

S and P 500 Market Analysis 1-08-13