Technical Outlook:
- Gap up yesterday held on but not in an overly convincing manner on the SPY – finishing slightly lower than its opening price.
- Volume trailed off from the day prior and is still well below recent averages.
- Potential bull flag pattern forming on the SPY 30 minute chart.
- Yesterday’s price action represented okay follow-through on the break of the downward trend-line off of the November highs from the day prior.
- VIX testing the recent lows from back in late October on the VIX, which only represented a few days prior to the October rally topping out officially.
- The market is starting to feel like a hot craps roll right now. How long that can last is anyone’s guess, but when it stops, you’ll likely see the masses quickly flee.
- T2108 (% of stocks trading above the 40-day moving average) hasn’t move nearly the entire month, remaining flatlined in the upper 80’s.
- Today will mark the end to one of the most volatile quarters the market has ever seen, and the first time since 1933 that the market has dropped over 10% and finished in the green in the same quarter – that is as long as 2044 holds today.
- Yellen’s dovish outlook as it pertains to rate hikes has been, in large part, the reason for the massive rally off of the February lows.
- Support continues to come in on any and all tests of the 10-day moving average.
- Oil continues to weaken, with USO dropping six straight sessions and seven of the last eight. The drop off of recent highs has had little consequence for the market.
- Everything above SPX 2040 poses a lot of resistance for the market. However, the market’s behavior and strength in late, suggests that price action will be able to push through.
- It is very possible right now, that we continue to rally into May before the market sees any strong renewed selling interest, much like the case of 2008 where a similar event took place before the rest of the year was mired in heavy selling.
My Trades:
- Closed out NFLX yesterday at $102.35 for a 2.2% profit.
- Added one new swing-trade to the portfolio yesterday.
- Currently 40% Long / 60% Cash
- Remain long TLT at $129.52, MJN at $82.05, AMZN at $581.21
- Will look to add 1-2 new additional positions today.
- Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone
Chart for SPX:
