• market exhausted tight trading range

Technical Outlook:

  • This market is becoming quite the snoozer. There was a whole 0.1% of downside to the market yesterday on the S&P 500 (SPX) as it continues to trade in a tight range for the past 13 trading sessions. market exhausted tight trading range
  • Volume fell off a bit on SPDRs S&P 500 (SPY) yesterday coming in at below average levels. 
  • Nadsaq (COMPQ) on the other hand continues to come in strong rising for a fifth straight day and following the 5-day moving average perfectly. 
  • On the flip side the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) dropped for a sixth straight day. 
  • To say that the market is all over the place is an understatement. One index can sell-off, another can’t rally, while the biggest index simply won’t move. 
  • Meanwhile, CBOE Market Volatility (VIX) can’t climb over 13 – every time it does it is met with heavy selling, and the 20-day moving average has not allowed for it to sustain any gains of late. 
  • USO continues to drag lower, and started to make its impact on equities yesterday. United States Oil Fund (USO) is now below its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. 
  • August has been a rather weak month in recent months with sell-offs in four of the last six years. 
  • Overall, August is the worst performing month for the Dow and S&P 500. 
  • 30 minute chart of SPX still looks extremely choppy. Upside here today should leave it behind. 
  • This week will be another heavy week of earnings. After this week, most of the major players will be out of the way. 
  • SPX trading range continues to come in incredibly choppy. Two price levels to watch that will signify further weakness in the market is 2059 and 2055. 
  • At this point, and with the election ahead, I’d expect the market to keep rallying higher. I don’t expect there to be a rate hike between now and the election. To do so would impact the market and thereby the election. I don’t think the Fed wants that, particularly since Trump has indicated that he would replace Yellen. 

My Trades:

  • Sold PII yesterday at $95.24 for a 1% profit. 
  • I added one additional long position yesterday.
  • May add 1-2 new swing-trades to the portfolio today. 
  • Will consider hedging the portfolio as well with a short position. 
  • Currently 40% Long / 60% Cash
  • Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 8-2-16

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