Pre-market update (updated 9am eastern):

  • Europe is trading 0.7% lower. 
  • Asian markets traded 0.5% higher. 
  • US futures are trading moderately lower. 

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Chicago PMI (9:45am), Pending Home Sales Index (10am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am), EIA Petroleum Status Report (11am)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Markets yesterday finished lower for the fourth straight day and fifth out of the last six sessions. 
    • Rallied more than sixteen points in the last hour and a half to only finish down nominally. 
    • Huge doji hammer on the SPX and SPY. 
  • SPX is officially in oversold territory now (short-term). 
  • At some point in the near future it is likely we will test those lows again that were formed intraday yesterday. 
  • SPX is continuing to price in the strong possibility that we are going over the “Fiscal Cliff” on Tuesday.
    • Expect further selling to ensue if relations continue to deteriorate between both sides. The outcome between both parties at the White House this morning will be key for the market. 
  • On the flip side, if we are surprised by some kind of mutual agreement between now and the end of the year, expect a major rip higher in the markets – likely  30-40 points on the SPX. 
  • We are gapping down this morning and that tends to see a decent chance at a red-to-green move in the market. 
  • The critical level of 1411 still holds, but cannot afford to give up much more ground before allowing this market to slip in bearish territory. 
  • Weekly chart still looks bearish overall with the failure at overhead resistance keeping the market from progressing higher. 
  • The 30-min chart had gone decidedly bearish with a new lower-low and end to the previous uptrend. 
  • 1448 remains the key level for the bulls to achieve and break through and put this market decisively back in their corner. 
  • Will see continued low levels of volume from now  until the end of the year. 
  • The thought is, if the House can’t pass their own Plan B, how will it ever pass a compromise between between Boehner and Obama. 
  • VIX flirted with 20  yesterday but finished back below at 19.47. 

My Opinions & Trades:

Chart for SPX:

SharePlanner Reversal Indicator 12-28-12