Pre-market update:

  • European markets are trading -1.8% lower. 
  • Asian markets traded 1.6% lower.
  • US futures are trading 0.3% lower.  

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): MBA Purchase Applications (7), Challenger Job-Cut Report (7:30), ADP Employment Report (8:15), International Trade (8:30), Jobless Claims (8:30), ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (10), EIA Petroleum Status Report (10:30), EIA Natural Gas Report (12pm)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • A flat day of trading for the markets yesterday. Expect more of the same today, especially with markets closing early at 1pm eastern. 
  • Volume should taper off dramatically today and Friday when the markets re-open. 
  • Last four days of trading has seen the bulls struggle to maintain its trading near the highs of the day. That tells me the bears have not given up the fight just yet to drive this market back down. 
  • If this does not happen for the bears, the result will be a far greater market rally and short squeeze. 
  • The 20-day moving average continues to be a formidable opponent, particularly over the last four trading sessions, as it continues to play the role of where the markets reverse once it is tested. 
  • Double top confirmed on the SPX 30-minute chart with a retest of resistance on the underside. 
  • Bull flag forming on the Weekly SPX chart.
  • VIX remains in the 16’s. 
  • June marked the first negative trading month since October 2012. It marked the end of seven straight green months. 
  • The one thing you are not seeing that typically accompanies a major market sell-off is continuous bad news coming out. We had the FOMC Statement and that has been it. 
  • I simply do not think the bears can keep driving this market lower without some form of a catalyst, besides the tapering comments made before by the FOMC. 
  • Markets don’t care about the economy. That is not what is driving them. The markets only care about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 

My Opinions & Trades:

  • Closed CME at 75.12 for a 1.6% loss. 
  • Current Longs: PCYC at 80.56, WLP at 80, GS at 153.16, LPI at 20.28, GOOG at 872.67, V at 182.15, BCR at 108.70.  
  • Holding pattern for new positions at the moment, unless the right opportunity presents itself.  
  • Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 7-03-12