Pre-market update:

  • European markets are trading 0.5% lower. 
  • Asian markets traded 0.7% lower.
  • US futures are trading 0.5% lower. 

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): None 

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • SPX closed at all-time highs yesterday and broke out of the four-day, 12-point consolidation range it had previously been in. Tech after hours earnings are weighing heavily on the market, particularly due to GOOG and MSFT reports. 
  • Volume has picked up a slight amount over the past two days. 
  • The possibility exists that the very steep rising trend-line off of the 6/24 lows will be tested today at 1674. A break of this level, will indicate the euphoria surrounding the recent push higher is dying down some. 
  • My experience with tech disappointments and after hours sell-offs, is that the rest of the market will typically recover during the day, while tech grapples with the earnings misses. I have a hunch that despite tech’s sell-off, the Dow and SPX could in fact finish green today. 
  • Of concern is that there is really no significant key price support levels near current price action. 
  • This uptrend looks nearly the same as the one we saw on 4/19 and lasted until 5/19. I’m curious if it will lead to a similar extended pullback as a result. 
  • The SPX has typically risen in long winded streaks in 2013 where instead of the typical give-and-take that a market experiences, the bulls push higher with little in the way of obstacles. 
  • VIX dropped back into the 13’s.
  • Yesterday’s VIX was a concern since it managed to finish break even despite the market’s run. 
  • Careful to note all the gaps that have formed on this uptrend off of the lows of 6/24. More times than not a market will ultimately come back and fill those gaps. 
  • Markets don’t care about the economy. That is not what is driving them. The markets only care about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 

My Opinions & Trades:

  • Sold EMN at 74.96 for a 1.9% gain. 
  • Sold CME at 76.4 for a -0.2% loss. 
  • Added CL at 58.84 yesterday. 
  • Added SBBGI at 30.72 yeseterday. 
  • Current Longs: HRB at 30.19, EMN at 73.58, QID at 21.17, CME at 76.53, SJM at 104.63, AAPL at 422.30, BDX at 99.98
  • May look to take gains in stocks that are stagnant and replace them with better setups today. 
  • Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 7-19-13