Pre-market update (updated 9am eastern):

  • Europe is trading 0.7% lower.
  • Asian markets traded -0.6% lower. 
  • US futures are significantly lower, in excess of -1.5% doing to political fallout on the fiscal cliff.  

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Durable Goods Orders (8:30am), Personal Income and Outlays (8:30am), Chicago Fed National Activity Index (8:30am), Consumer Sentiment (9:55am), Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (11am)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Failure of the House to pass the Plan B to avoid the fiscal cliff has created a flash crash overnight and a significantly lower open this morning. 
    • The thought is, if the House can’t pass their own Plan B, how will it ever pass a compromise between between Boehner and Obama. 
  • Many times I’ve seen these extremely emotional trading sessions that result in a huge gap down often times get bought up before the close. Be weary of chasing this market with fresh shorts this morning. 
  • The market bounce nicely off of Wednesday’s pullback, but that is of little consequence now with the opening that we are looking at. 
  • Watch the VIX for any positive divergences suggesting the bottom is in on the market today. 
  • As long as the market holds 1411, I think the bullish thesis is still intact. 
  • Volume should significantly drop off today after 
  • Fairly good chance we will see the day’s lows put in during the first hour of trading today. 
  • Pushing this market below 1411 will create a strong bearish advantage, until then, no major worries for the bulls. 
  • Expect market volume to continue to lighten between now and Christmas. 
  • Fiscal Cliff talks yesterday deteriorated dramatically. 

My Opinions & Trades:

Chart for SPX:

S and P 500 Market Analysis 12-21-12