Pre-market update (updated 9am eastern):
- European markets are trading in a wide range from -0.5 up to +0.9%.
- Asian markets traded in a wide range from -0.8% up to 1.0%
- US futures are significantly higher.
Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): None
Technical Outlook (SPX):
- SPX had a huge push higher Friday following a beat on the employment number
- The Bollinger Bands are back in to play, as the SPX managed to close right on top of the upper band.
- Last time we had a major test of the Bollinger Band, we traded outside of it for two days before experiencing a significant sell-off.
- I would be careful at these levels about adding additional exposure to the long side.
- Also, be careful about trying to front run this market and assume that since we are heavily overbought, it should be shorted.
- We cross over 1600 for the first time on Friday, a new achievement for the SPX.
- I don’t have high expectations for the SPX right now as we are more likely to see some consolidation in the day’s ahead.
- 1579 remains a key rising support level that was formed off of the channel that started back in November.
- VIX settled in at 12.9.
- Markets don’t care about the economy. That is not what is driving them. The markets only care about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up.
- Both channels (July October 2012) and the price channel we are currently in are very similar in nature.
- We haven’t seen a market pullback in excess of 4% since October/November time-frame.
My Opinions & Trades:
- Will likely close out 1-2 new positions today.
- Won’t rule out add any new positions either, but overall I want to have less exposure than what I came in with today.
- Will tighten my stops on the majority of my positions today.
- Remain Long TSM at $18.37, WDAY at $60.35, TXN at $36.02, CMG at $364.85, TSCO at $107.62, LULU at $76.01, RLGY at $48.49
- Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone