Pre-market update (updated 9am eastern):

  • European markets are trading in a wide range from -0.5 up to +0.9%. 
  • Asian markets traded in a wide range from -0.8% up to 1.0%
  • US futures are significantly higher. 

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): None

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • SPX had a huge push higher Friday following a beat on the employment number
  • The Bollinger Bands are back in to play, as the SPX managed to close right on top of the upper band. 
  • Last time we had a major test of the Bollinger Band, we traded outside of it for two days before experiencing a significant sell-off. 
  • I would be careful at these levels about adding additional exposure to the long side. 
  • Also, be careful about trying to front run this market and assume that since we are heavily overbought, it should be shorted. 
  • We cross over 1600 for the first time on Friday, a new achievement for the SPX. 
  • I don’t have high expectations for the SPX right now as we are more likely to see some consolidation in the day’s ahead. 
  • 1579 remains a key rising support level that was formed off of the channel that started back in November. 
  • VIX settled in at 12.9.
  • Markets don’t care about the economy. That is not what is driving them. The markets only care about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 
  • Both channels (July October 2012) and the price channel we are currently in are very similar in nature. 
  • We haven’t seen a market pullback in excess of 4% since October/November time-frame. 

My Opinions & Trades:

  • Will likely close out 1-2 new positions today. 
  • Won’t rule out add any new positions either, but overall I want to have less exposure than what I came in with today. 
  • Will tighten my stops on the majority of my positions today. 
  • Remain Long TSM at $18.37, WDAY at $60.35, TXN at $36.02, CMG at $364.85, TSCO at $107.62, LULU at $76.01, RLGY at $48.49
  • Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 5-06-13