Pre-market update (updated 8:30am eastern):

  • Europe is trading 0.3% higher. 
  • Asian markets traded -1.2% lower.
  • US futures are trading flat, with slight weakness.  

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): GDP (8:30am), Consumer Sentiment (9:55am)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Market attempted to bounce yesterday, but gave up the day’s gains quickly after the market opened. 
  • Short-term we are oversold, and no doubt ready for a bounce. Sometimes, it can take a lot longer than you think to have happen. 
  • Price has come back inside the lower-bollinger band. 
  • We had a small pop in volume yesterday, but nothing too exciting. 
  • There’s a trend-line off of the 2011 October lows, that would represent rising long-term support, and today that level sits at 1400. 
  • We also broke below the critical 1425 support level. This creates an obvious lower-low in the market, but also a break down and out of current price channel. Very bearish. 
  • Price support also exists at 1400.
  • Weekly chart also supports a breakdown in the previous channel, and end to its longer-term uptrend off of the June lows. 
  • 30-minute chart is showing some accumulation/channeling at the lows of the recent sell-off. 
  • VIX is above 18. 
  • Fed’s QE3 launch is going to add a lot of buying power to this market and drive more people out of interest-bearing assets and into equities in search of some kind of return. 
  • One area of concern is the 3 large gaps off of the 6/4 lows that remain unfilled, including 6/6, 7/26, 8/3

My Opinions & Trades:

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 10-26-12