Technical Outlook:
- SPX rallied on Friday for a third straight day following the FOMC Statement.
- The downtrend off of the November highs has been tested but not broken. A minor rally today would lead to a break of that downtrend.
- Russell broke out of its bull flag pattern after lagging the market early on last week.
- Biotech stocks continue to show notable weakness which has held the Nasdaq back some.
- The DIA ETF for the Dow Jones Industrial has been by far the most impressive, rallying 8 straight days and 13 out of the last 14 days.
- VIX is quickly approaching a range between 11 – 13’s that leads to a bit more choppiness in price action.
- T2108 (% of stocks trading above their 40-day moving average) is now at 87.13% – the last time it closed this high was in February of 2012.
- The last time that SPX moved down more than 10% and then finished in the green for the quarter was 1933. Obviously, what has been seen so far in 2016 has never been seen by anyone currently trading.
- SPX rallied for a 5th straight week, and in excess of 1% each time – not seen since the bottom of March 2009 was hit.
- Volume has increased each of the past four trading sessions but still below recent averages.
- The biggest issue surrounding this market at this time is that reward with long setups is just on par with risk.
- 30 minute chart of SPX still holding strong but well overextended in the short-term.
My Trades:
- Did not add any new swing-trades yesterday.
- Did not close out any swing-trades on Friday.
- Currently 100% Cash
- Careful to add long exposure considering that the market is as overbought as has been in years. A pullback, not necessarily a major one is in order here.
- Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone
Chart for SPX:
