Pre-market update (updated 9am eastern):

  • European markets are trading 0.7% higher. 
  • Asian markets traded 1.2% higher.
  • US futures are slightly higher. 

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (7:45am), Redbook (8:55am), Consumer Credit (3pm)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • We finished higher for the 10th time in the last 12 trading sessions. 
  • Fun fact: We have finished higher over the course of the last 16 Tuesdays, which breaks a record dating back to 1927 (15 straight). 
  • We are testing the upper Bollinger-Band but definitely not trading outside of it at the moment, which should allow us to keep pushing higher in a very consistent manner.
  • Bollinger Bands tend to expand 6-7 points daily in a strong uptrend, so that is  your likely ceiling for daily gains. 
  • Of concern is the fact that volume is falling off while the market is rising 
  • VIX experiencing some ‘lackluster-ness’ at 12.7. 
  • Continue trading to the long side while the bullishness continues. No need to try to call a top on this market when it shows no desire to do so. Don’t try to be a hero in your trading. 
  • I also think it is a high likelihood that we see some consolidation in the coming days in price action. 
  • Last time we had a major test of the Bollinger Band, we traded outside of it for two days before experiencing a significant sell-off. 
  • I would be careful at these levels about adding additional exposure to the long side. 
  • 1579 remains a key rising support level that was formed off of the channel that started back in November. 
  • Markets don’t care about the economy. That is not what is driving them. The markets only care about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 
  • Both channels (July October 2012) and the price channel we are currently in are very similar in nature. 
  • We haven’t seen a market pullback in excess of 4% since October/November time-frame. 

My Opinions & Trades:

  • Closed out WDAY at $65.75 for a 9.0% gain. 
  • Closed out LULU for a -2.3% loss. 
  • Added JCI at $35.22 yesterday. 
  • Will likely close out 1-2 new positions today. 
  • Won’t rule out add any new positions either, but overall I want to have less exposure than what I came in with today. 
  • Will tighten my stops on the majority of my positions today. 
  • Remain Long TSM at $18.37, TXN at $36.02, CMG at $364.85, TSCO at $107.62, RLGY at $48.49
  • Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 5-07-13