Pre-market update (updated 9am eastern):
- European markets are trading 0.7% higher.
- Asian markets traded 1.2% higher.
- US futures are slightly higher.
Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (7:45am), Redbook (8:55am), Consumer Credit (3pm)
Technical Outlook (SPX):
- We finished higher for the 10th time in the last 12 trading sessions.
- Fun fact: We have finished higher over the course of the last 16 Tuesdays, which breaks a record dating back to 1927 (15 straight).
- We are testing the upper Bollinger-Band but definitely not trading outside of it at the moment, which should allow us to keep pushing higher in a very consistent manner.
- Bollinger Bands tend to expand 6-7 points daily in a strong uptrend, so that is your likely ceiling for daily gains.
- Of concern is the fact that volume is falling off while the market is rising
- VIX experiencing some ‘lackluster-ness’ at 12.7.
- Continue trading to the long side while the bullishness continues. No need to try to call a top on this market when it shows no desire to do so. Don’t try to be a hero in your trading.
- I also think it is a high likelihood that we see some consolidation in the coming days in price action.
- Last time we had a major test of the Bollinger Band, we traded outside of it for two days before experiencing a significant sell-off.
- I would be careful at these levels about adding additional exposure to the long side.
- 1579 remains a key rising support level that was formed off of the channel that started back in November.
- Markets don’t care about the economy. That is not what is driving them. The markets only care about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up.
- Both channels (July October 2012) and the price channel we are currently in are very similar in nature.
- We haven’t seen a market pullback in excess of 4% since October/November time-frame.
My Opinions & Trades:
- Closed out WDAY at $65.75 for a 9.0% gain.
- Closed out LULU for a -2.3% loss.
- Added JCI at $35.22 yesterday.
- Will likely close out 1-2 new positions today.
- Won’t rule out add any new positions either, but overall I want to have less exposure than what I came in with today.
- Will tighten my stops on the majority of my positions today.
- Remain Long TSM at $18.37, TXN at $36.02, CMG at $364.85, TSCO at $107.62, RLGY at $48.49
- Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone