Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded 1.1% higher.
  • European markets are trading 0.5% higher.
  • US futures are trading 0.2% higher ahead of the market open. 


Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): 
None. 

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • SPX continues to climb higher to new highs but in smaller increments. 
  • Expect volume to be very light with today being Veteran’s Day. 
  • SPX continues to climb the 5-day moving average, holding the support each and every day. 
  • This market rally is very similar to the July 2013 rally. Like that rally, we are currently in the later stages where the gains become more “stair-stepped”.
  • VIX dropped back down to 12.67 by shedding another 3.4%.
  • As the VIX dropps down into the 12’s this is typically where you see the gains become much smaller and the market more stable. 
  • Another mini-bull flag on SPX 30 minute chart. 
  • Expect a slow news week. Very little in the way of game-changing news scheduled. 
  • The best way to follow this market continues to be the 5-day moving average. The market remains unquestionably bullish until it can close below this important short-term MA. 
  • Whether the rally continues for the foreseeable future or not, one thing remains, and that is it cannot continue for much longer, to rally at the gravity defying slope it has done for over three weeks now. 
  • As a result, consolidation will have to kick in, in order that the trend-line may flatten out some. 
  • Historically trend-lines that are steeper/greater than 45 degrees are nearly impossible to maintain over an extended period of time. 
  • The market doesn’t care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 


My Trades:


  • Did not close out any trades yesterday. 
  • Added one additional long position yesterday. 
  • Will consider adding 1-2 new long positions today. In addition to any new long positions, I’ll also close out an equal number of my current positions. 
  • Remain long INFY at 62.56, MS at 34.40, LUV at 11.3, PHM at 19.35, CAR at $56.57, HUN at 24.73, XLE at 87.98.
  • 80% long / 20% cash. 
  • Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 11-11-14