Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded 0.1% higher. 
  • European markets are trading 0.6% lower.  
  • US futures are trading 0.1% higher ahead of the opening bell.  


Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Personal Income and Outlays (8:30), Chicago PMI (9:45), Consumer Sentiment (9:55), Farm Prices (3)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Third day in a row that the long-term trend-line off of the November 2012 lows have been tested and held. Today the rising support is at 1636. 
  • Also the second day in a row, where solid gains going into the final hour of trading have been cut in half before the close. 
  • Ideally for the bulls, I would have liked for it to have stayed above 1643 (minor resistance), but it couldn’t. More importantly though is getting back above 1670 and closing above it. That is quite a ways away and won’t be achieved in one day. 
  • Volume continues to taper off ahead of the Labor day weekend – I expect that we’ll see extremely light trading today. 
  • SPX back into oversold conditions which is the first time since November 2012 that the market has double-dipped in such a short-time frame into those oversold conditions. 
  • If the rising trend-line breaks the next critical level of support is the 1560 level of the SPX which was the last previous major higher-low. 
  • VIX climbed higher yesterday to 16.80. 
  • I still maintain that the best strategy for this market is to continue trading to the long side in this market. Sell-offs in this environment are quick and hard to capitalize on – better off holding on to the long side and buying on the dips.
  • Markets don’t care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving them. The markets only care about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 

My Opinions & Trades:

  • Did not sell or add any new positions yesterday. 
  • Currently 80% long / 20% cash.  
  • Current Longs: URS at 49.85, BMRN at 64.50, WYNN at 139.08, FDX 108.18, CMI at 123.48, DE at 84.75, VIAB at 79.25, and YHOO at 27.15. 
  • Will wait on this market today to see whether the bulls come in and provide support at key price levels. 
  • Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 8-30-13