Pre-market update (updated 8:30am eastern):
- Europe is trading flat.
- Asian markets traded +0.8% higher.
- US futures are moderately higher ahead of the open.
Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Employment Situation (8:30am), Factory Orders (10am)
Technical Outlook (SPX):
- Strong bounce out of the market yesterday as the market pushed its way into key resistance levels between 1425-32.
- A pop from the employment report has the market pushing through this resistance level at the open but keeping price above that level will remain a challenge.
- Volume was notably light yesterday, adding skepticism to the idea that the rally was more of a dead-cat bounce.
- Short-term we are off of the oversold conditions. Longer-term we are definitively oversold.
- 1400 held as a solid level of support for the past week.
- If conditions are to get bearish, it can’t do so until it breaks this 1400 level.
- Triple-top confirmed on the SPX over the past two months.
- Weekly chart also supports a breakdown in the previous channel, and end to its longer-term uptrend off of the June lows.
- VIX dropped hard yesterday and below 17.
- Fed’s QE3 launch is going to add a lot of buying power to this market and drive more people out of interest-bearing assets and into equities in search of some kind of return.
- One area of concern is the 3 large gaps off of the 6/4 lows that remain unfilled, including 6/6, 7/26, 8/3
My Opinions & Trades:
- Day-Traded SVU yesterday from 3.19 up to 3.24 for a 1.6% gain.
- Remain long AGU at $106.23.
- Remain Short MCP at $10.34, ESRX at 61.51
Chart for SPX:
