Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded 0.1% higher.
  • European markets are trading 0.3% lower. 
  • US futures are flat ahead of the market open. 


Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Pending Home Sales Index (10), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey (10:30), Farm Prices (3) 

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Some much needed consolidation at the market highs on Friday. Expect more of the same today. 
  • Last year on the last market session of the year, there was a major rally in stocks. Be aware of the possibility of such tomorrow. 
  • If we see a pullback here, anything that doesn’t break 1809 will be ok. 
  • Volume over the next two days will be below average. 
  • This is also a shortened holiday week for trading with Wednesday being closed due to New Year’s Day. 
  • Over the last 7 trading sessions the SPX has rallied over 73 points – so it makes sense for a little cooling here. 
  • SPX remains firmly overbought and can continue to do so for an extended period of time. 
  • VIX rose a slight bit on Friday to 12.46. 
  • Trend-line support off of the October lows lies at 1785 – and currently out of reach for the bears. 
  • There is absolutely no reason at all to be short this market. 
  • Markets don’t care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving them. The markets only care about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 

My Opinions & Trades:

  • Did not close out any positions on Friday.  
  • Did not add any new swing-trades to the portfolio on Friday.  
  • Remain long ICE at $219.62, FLS at 72.25, RCL at 44.46 and KEY at 13.12, TRMB at 33.15, LAMR 51.18. 
  • I expect to add 1-2 new positions today. 
  • Long 60% / Cash 40% 
  • Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 12-30-13