Pre-market update (updated 8am eastern):

  • European markets are trading 0.2% higher.
  • Asian markets traded 0.4% higher. 
  • US futures are moderately higher. 

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Consumer Sentiment (9:55am), Leading Indicators (10am)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • SPX finally decided to pullback yesterday after having gone up 32 points since the last one. 
  • 10-day moving average continues to be a good short-term gauge on the SPX bearishness/bullishness. 
  • On the whole, volume continues to improve, though we saw slightly less yesterday with the pullback. 
  • I’m not to concerned about this market at this point. I think you want to keep stops tight in case of reversal, but not be afraid to add new opportunities where they exist. 
  • Eventually the equities bubble we are in right now will burst, but until then, you have no choice but to trade to the long side. 
  • A bearish divergence worth noting in the VIX is how it has risen over the last 3 days and we are nowhere near the March lows. 
  • I do have big reservations about whether this market can truly get up to 1700 as quickly as it is trying to do. It has gone straight up since crossing 1600, and bulls have become gluttons in their market outlook. 
  • Traders will point at the fact that we are overbought but we have been since April – move on, nothing to see there. 
  • We have traded above the 10-day moving average for 18 straight sessions, which is a great sign of strength. 
  • 16 out of the last 20 sessions has resulted in a bullish move for the SPX. Futile to try to call tops on this market right now… let the price action come to you. 
  • I don’t mind adding more positions to the portfolio at these levels, but while I do that, I am tightening my stops in my existing positions to protect profits and reduce exposure. I recommend you do the same if you are going to increase your exposure. 
  • Essentially, the market has previously been working off overbought conditions via intraday pullbacks. 
  • If it were up to me, I’d like to see the SPX pullback over multiple days to the 1600 level. 
  • 30-minute charts shows a strong uptrending market with the ability to pullback to 1635.
  • We are up seven straight months, the last time we saw such a rally was when the market bottomed in 2009. 
  • Markets don’t care about the economy. That is not what is driving them. The markets only care about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 
  • We haven’t seen a market pullback in excess of 4% since October/November time-frame. 

My Opinions & Trades:

  • Added DO yesterday at $71.00. 
  • Will probably look to do the following: Close out 1-2 new positions and tighten my stop-loss on remaining ones. 
  • Remain Long RLGY at $48.49, JCI at $35.22, GRA at $79.03, WOOF at $24.40, DG at $52.75, CMG at $374.07, AAP 86.07.
  • Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 5-17-13