Pre-market update (updated 8am eastern):

  • European markets are trading 0.3% higher.
  • Asian markets traded -0.1% lower. 
  • US futures are trading slightly higher ahead of the opening bell. 

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): MBA Purchase Applications (7am), Durable Goods Orders (8:30am), Bernanke speaks (10am), Pending Home Sales INdex (10am), EIA Petoleum STatus Report (10:30am)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • At this point, yesterday was nothing more than a dead cat bounce from Monday’s huge sell-off. 
  • Volume, as has been the case of late, was very poor when compared to the volume on the sell-offs. Even worse than before yesterday. 
  • We didn’t test the lower chennel band of the uptrend yesterday. Today that test level comes at 1483. 
  • On the previous channel from June through Octoer last year, it was the third retest of the rising channel that finally broke, which is the same retest we are on right now in the SPX.
  • Both channels and the price action within are unbelievably similar in nature. 
  • I don’t expect the 50-day moving average which currently sits at 1478, to offer any significant support if teseted.
  • VIX dropped back into the 16’s yesterday. 
  • SPX nearing short-term oversold territory, which once it reached that point back in late December, it immediately bounced higher. 
  • If we see a break at 1480 today of the rising channel, the next logical support level for the market rests at 1465. 
  • We saw the SPX break 1495 which was key in my opinion for determining whether this was momentary weakness or a new leg down in the broader market. 
  • 30-minute chart shows a very mild bounce yesterday. 
  • We haven’t seen a market pullback in excess of 4% since October/November time-frame. 
  • The channel that we are currently trading in looks very similar to the channel that we traded in last year from June through September. 

My Opinions & Trades:

  • Shorted TRI at $29.95 yesterday. 
  • Closed out HCBK at $8.63 from $8.73 for a -1.2% loss. 
  • Closed MTB at$102.37 from $105.73 for a -3.2% loss. 
  • Market reversal of late is providing some great short setups for us to scale into. 
  • Remain Long ADBE at $38.88; Short HOG at $51.83, CX at $10.20, ILMN at $48.40.
  • Here is my real-time swing-trading portfolio and past-performance

Chart for SPX:

S and P 500 Market Analysis 2-27-13