Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded 0.7% lower. 
  • European markets are trading 0.3% lower.
  • US futures are trading 0.2% lower ahead of the market open. 


Economic reports due out (all times are eastern):
Challenger Job-Cut Report (7:30), Jobless Claims (8:30), Productivity and Costs (8:30), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30), Treasury STRIPS (3)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Strong follow through yesterday to the doji candle pattern seen on SPX on Tuesday. 
  • Still a very much “Buy-the-Dip” market. 
  • Volume is falling back towards natural volume levels. 
  • VIX fell another 4.8% to 14.17. 
  • For the month of November the SPX 30 minute chart has been in consolidation at the all-time highs. 
  • One of the concerns for me in this rally off of the 10/15 lows is the lack of any higher-low – it has been ‘straight-up’ the entire time. 
  • The trend line off of the 10/15 lows needs to “flatten” out a bit – no rally can sustain a trend that is in excess of a 45 degree angle. 
  • The 5-day moving average continues to be a strong reading of where this market is heading. SPX tested it yesterday and held the MA into the close. 
  • Ideally some consolidation going forward would be great for the bulls and would provide some prime long setups for the next leg higher. 
  • SPX is no doubt overbought at this juncture of the rally, but those types of conditions can go on far longer than one would ever think. 
  • Market internal indicators all continue to look fairly healthy at this stage of the game. 
  • The market doesn’t care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 


My Trades:

  • Added two new additional position yesterday. 
  • Sold NFLX  at 377.99 for a 2.6% loss. 
  • Will consider adding 1-2 new long positions today.
  • Remain long INFY at 62.56, MS at 34.40, LUV at 11.3, PHM at 19.35.
  • 60% long / 40% cash. 
  • Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 11-6-14