Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded 0.5% lower. 
  • European markets are trading 0.2% lower.
  • US futures are trading 0.3% lower ahead of the market open. 


Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): None

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • For a second straight day the 50-day moving average was tested and held. This continues to be the place where the dip buyers come in and support this market. 
  • Any rally that is had today, won’t mean much unless it closes above 1883 – though with last Monday’s break of this price level, the resistance has become significantly less. 
  • Volume was much less than what was seen on Thursday but still higher than most days prior. 
  • VIX resumed its decline and acts like it wants to get back below 12 again. 
  • I am very much interested in watching whether any sell-off that takes place can push SPX below the short-term rising trend-line off of the 4/28 lows. Today that support is at 1870. 
  • Bears have shown that despite having favorable market conditions time and time again, that they simply cannot push this market lower over a long period of time. I don’t expect them to do it here either. 
  • Major milestones like 1900 can often lead to profit-taking as it represents a predefined/psychological level where investors decide to book their gains. 
  • Small caps continue to be the market’s weak spot. 
  • The Market doesn’t care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 

My Opinions & Trades:

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 5-19-14