Pre-market update:

  • European markets are trading 0.2% higher. 
  • Asian markets traded 0.1% higher.
  • US futures are trading 0.3% higher.. 

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): MBA Purchase Applications (7), Housing Starts (8:30), Bernanke Speaks (10), EIA Petroleum Status Repot (10:30), Beige Book (2)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Finally a pullback in SPX but it was little for the bears to get excited about. Clear evidence that the dip buyers tried to emerge at the end of day, but their efforts were lethargic. 
  • From trough to peak the SPX has risen about 124 points. A 38.2% Fibonnaci pullback would equate to a move back down to 1636.
  • A pullback to the steep existing trend-line is at 1662. 
  • 1687.18 represents all time highs for the SPX – expect some resistance to be in play at that level. 
  • Notice the nice inverse head and shoulders pattern on the SPX 5 minute chart. 
  • This uptrend looks nearly the same as the one we saw on 4/19 and lasted until 5/19. I’m curious if it will lead to a similar extended pullback as a result. 
  • Ironically, the 30-minute chart of the SPX looks  a little more distributive and could actually be forming a head and shoulders pattern. To reconcile the 5 & 30 minute chart, defer to the latter, as it is a stronger more reliable time frame. 
  • The SPX has typically risen in long winded streaks in 2013 where instead of the typical give-and-take that a market experiences, the bulls push higher with little in the way of obstacles. 
  • Volume remains stagnant and shows a real lack of interest in this market as it settles near all-time highs. 
  • VIX popped up to 14.42 yesterday. 
  • Careful to note all the gaps that have formed on this uptrend off of the lows of 6/24. More times than not a market will ultimately come back and fill those gaps. 
  • Markets don’t care about the economy. That is not what is driving them. The markets only care about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 

My Opinions & Trades:

  • Added EMN yesterday at 73.58. 
  • Current Longs: QID at 21.17, CME at 76.53, SJM at 104.63, AAPL at 422.30, BDX at 99.98
  • I’ll look to add some new long positions today if this market tries to trend lower today. 
  • Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 7-17-13