Pre-market update (updated 8am eastern):
- European markets are trading 0.1% higher.
- Asian markets traded traded mixed/flat.
- US futures are slightly higher.
Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (7:45am), Import and Export Prices (8:30am), Redbook (8:55am)
Technical Outlook (SPX):
- SPX managed to close at all times highs for the second straight day.
- Yesterday showed the dip buyers come back into the market after the market had put in the day’s lows within the first 30 minutes of trading.
- Essentially, the market is trying to work off overbought conditions via intraday pullbacks.
- Volume was on the light side yesterday.
- Bollinger Bands have pulled nicely away from price action and has a price ceiling of 25+ points now from current price levels.
- With yesterday’s close, we could be attempting to breakout of this four-day consolidation period in the markets.
- If it were up to me, I’d like to see the SPX pullback over multiple days to the 1600 level.
- SPX has been short-term overbought since 4/26.
- 30-minute charts shows an overextended market, and could allow for a 10-13 point pullback.
- Additional weakness today, would not be at all a bad thing for these markets. Few setups out there, and less and less stocks are participating in this market rally.
- As long as the SPX doesn’t break 1580, any pullback we experience should be just fine and keep the bullish sentiment in place.
- A push above the upper Bollinger band would likely result in a climatic top.
- We are up seven straight months, the last time we saw such a rally was when the market bottomed in 2009.
- I ultimately think that there is a strong possibility of the SPX finishing the month of May in the red.
- Continue trading to the long side while the bullishness continues. No need to try to call a top on this market when it shows no desire to do so. Don’t try to be a hero in your trading.
- Markets don’t care about the economy. That is not what is driving them. The markets only care about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up.
- Both channels (July October 2012) and the price channel we are currently in are very similar in nature.
- We haven’t seen a market pullback in excess of 4% since October/November time-frame.
My Opinions & Trades:
- Busy day on Monday:
- Added SLB at $77.03
- Added WOOF at $24.40
- Added DG at $52.75.
- Stopped out of TXN at $36.78 for a 2.1% gain.
- Remain Long RLGY at $48.49, JCI at $35.22, GRA at $79.03.
- Tightening the stop on my positions again today.
- Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone