Pre-market update (updated 8am eastern):

  • European markets are trading 0.1% higher.
  • Asian markets traded traded mixed/flat.
  • US futures are slightly higher.

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (7:45am), Import and Export Prices (8:30am), Redbook (8:55am)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • SPX managed to close at all times highs for the second straight day. 
  • Yesterday showed the dip buyers come back into the market after the market had put in the day’s lows within the first 30 minutes of trading. 
  • Essentially, the market is trying to work off overbought conditions via intraday pullbacks. 
  • Volume was on the light side yesterday. 
  • Bollinger Bands have pulled nicely away from price action and has a price ceiling of 25+ points now from current price levels. 
  • With yesterday’s close, we could be attempting to breakout of this four-day consolidation period in the markets. 
  • If it were up to me, I’d like to see the SPX pullback over multiple days to the 1600 level. 
  • SPX has been short-term overbought since 4/26. 
  • 30-minute charts shows an overextended market, and could allow for a 10-13 point pullback. 
  • Additional weakness today, would not be at all a bad thing for these markets. Few setups  out there, and less and less stocks are participating in this market rally. 
  • As long as the SPX doesn’t break 1580, any pullback we experience should be just fine and keep the bullish sentiment in place. 
  • A push above the upper Bollinger band would likely result in a climatic top. 
  • We are up seven straight months, the last time we saw such a rally was when the market bottomed in 2009. 
  • I ultimately think that there is a strong possibility of the SPX finishing the month of May in the red. 
  • Continue trading to the long side while the bullishness continues. No need to try to call a top on this market when it shows no desire to do so. Don’t try to be a hero in your trading. 
  • Markets don’t care about the economy. That is not what is driving them. The markets only care about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 
  • Both channels (July October 2012) and the price channel we are currently in are very similar in nature. 
  • We haven’t seen a market pullback in excess of 4% since October/November time-frame. 

My Opinions & Trades:

  • Busy day on Monday:
  • Added SLB at $77.03
  • Added WOOF at $24.40
  • Added DG at $52.75. 
  • Stopped out of TXN at $36.78 for a 2.1% gain. 
  • Remain Long RLGY at $48.49, JCI at $35.22, GRA at $79.03.
  • Tightening the stop on my positions again today. 
  • Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 5-14-13