Pre-market update (updated 9:00am eastern):
- Europe is trading 0.1% higher.
- Asian markets traded 0.6% higher.
- US futures are slightly higher.
Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): MBA Purchase Applications (7am), Jobless Claims (8:30am), PMI Manufacturing Index (8:58am), Consumer Sentiment (9:55am), Leading Indicators (10am), EIA Petroleum Status Report (10:30am), EIA Natural Gas Report (12pm)
Technical Outlook (SPX):
- The bounce we saw on Monday, subsided substantially with a marginal gain on Tuesday.
- Volume will weaken dramatically today as many traders will take the day off.
- SPX managed to consolidate above the 200-day moving average.
- A break below the 1376 on the 30-min chart would suggest that the dead cat bounce is done and over with, particularly if it fails to make a higher-high beforehand.
- Intraday price action should be rather quiet today, and unless there is a news catalyst, a major rally like we saw on Monday will be much harder to achieve.
- Short-term we have made a strong push towards short-term overbought levels. We’re not there yet, but one more day in the green, will likely take us there.
- If the market languishes or pushes lower, I may look for limited opportunities to get short.
- 20-day moving average at 1395ish is also in play today.
- This current market bounce should essentially forming a ‘lower-high’ in the market.
- On Friday, the SPX bounced off of the lower line of the downward channel it has been trading in.
- Thursday the market is closed, and Friday it is only open until 1pm.
- Also worth noting, is that this bounce will came off of the lower bollinger band on the weekly chart, as previously noted, and similar to what we saw on 6/1.
- VIX has dropped to 15-flat
My Opinions & Trades:
- Sold CMCSA at $36.43 from $35.32 for a 3.1% gain.
- Bought PHG at $25.41.
- Expect to close out 1-2 of my current positions.
- Will add 1-2 short positions if this market begins to languish or weaken.