Pre-market update (updated 9:00am eastern):

  • Europe is trading 0.1% higher. 
  • Asian markets traded 0.6% higher. 
  • US futures are slightly higher.  

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): MBA Purchase Applications (7am), Jobless Claims (8:30am), PMI Manufacturing Index (8:58am), Consumer Sentiment (9:55am), Leading Indicators (10am), EIA Petroleum Status Report (10:30am), EIA Natural Gas Report (12pm)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • The bounce we saw on Monday, subsided substantially with a marginal gain on Tuesday. 
  • Volume will weaken dramatically today as many traders will take the day off. 
  • SPX managed to consolidate above the 200-day moving average. 
  • A break below the 1376 on the 30-min chart  would suggest that the dead cat bounce is done and over with, particularly if it fails to make a higher-high beforehand. 
  • Intraday price action should be rather quiet today, and unless there is a news catalyst, a major rally like we saw on Monday will be much harder to achieve. 
  • Short-term we have made a strong push towards short-term overbought levels. We’re not there yet, but one more day in the green, will likely take us there. 
  • If the market languishes or pushes lower, I may look for limited opportunities to get short. 
  • 20-day moving average at 1395ish is also in play today. 
  • This current market bounce should essentially forming a ‘lower-high’ in the market. 
  • On Friday, the SPX bounced off of the lower line of the downward channel it has been trading in. 
  • Thursday the market is closed, and Friday it is only open until 1pm. 
  • Also worth noting, is that this bounce will came off of the lower bollinger band on the weekly chart, as previously noted, and similar to what we saw on 6/1. 
  • VIX has dropped to 15-flat

My Opinions & Trades:

  • Sold CMCSA at $36.43 from $35.32 for a 3.1% gain. 
  • Bought PHG at $25.41. 
  • Expect to close out 1-2 of my current positions. 
  • Will add 1-2 short positions if this market begins to languish or weaken. 

Chart for SPX:

S and P 500 Market Analysis 11-21-12