• volatility emerging

Technical Outlook:

  • A little more volatility was introduced into the market yesterday than what we have become used to seeing in recent weeks. volatility emerging
  • SPX was actually down over 1% at one point, and below the range it has been recently stuck in. 
  • Support levels: 2159 was broken yesterday, but 2155 held strong following a late day rally off of the lows. 
  • The 20-day moving average yesterday was broken intraday, but the bulls managed to hold on into the close. 
  • SPY volume yesterday was higher than the day prior and at average levels for the index. 
  • VIX had a big day, finally busting through resistance at 13 and as high as the 14’s at one point. Finished 7.5% higher yesterday. 
  • SPX 30 minute chart indicates SPX is coming out of its current price range and moving lower. 
  • A significant pullback here will need to find support at 2120 which is ha huge level of resistance for the market. 
  • United States Oil Fund (USO) continued its huge slide again yesterday. Watch the 5-day moving average – it has been a huge wall of resistance for the commodity. 
  • T2108 (% of stocks trading above their 40-day moving average) continues to exhibit weakness – this time falling 10.1% down to 60%. 
  • Most indicators are eluding to further weakness in the market and August tends to be a month that we see that from a historical advantage. 
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) dropped for a 7th straight days – it would seem like a bounce is in order, but then again, in July it went up 9 straight days. 
  • Overall, August is the worst performing month for the Dow and S&P 500. 
  • After this week, most of the major earnings reports will be out of the way. 
  • At this point, and with the election ahead, I’d expect the market to keep rallying higher. I don’t expect there to be a rate hike between now and the election. To do so would impact the market and thereby the election. I don’t think the Fed wants that, particularly since Trump has indicated that he would replace Yellen. 

My Trades:

  • Day-traded & sold UPRO yesterday at $72.42 for a 0.6% gain. 
  • Sold MDRX yesterday at $14.02 for a 0.1% gain (flat)
  • Stopped out of DD yesterday at 67.97 for a 2.2% loss. 
  • Did not add any additional long positions yesterday. 
  • May add 1-2 new swing-trades to the portfolio today. 
  • Will consider hedging the portfolio as well with a short position. 
  • Currently 30% Long / 70% Cash
  • Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 8-3-16

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