Pre-market upadate (updated 9:00am eastern):
- European markets are -0.8% lower.
- Asian markets traded -0.4% lower.
- US Markets are nearly 1% lower ahead of the opening bell.
Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Employment Situation (8:30am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am)
Technical Outlook (SPX):
- Yesterday’s pullback was light, and without any sense of panic to it.
- Today’s market is trading lower off of a disappointing payroll number.
- There is plenty of ‘wiggle-room’ without causing much damage on the charts
- As long as 1327 is held the existing upward trend-line remains in-tact.
- Some weakness here is not surprising, considering the extent of which the market has moved over the past six trading days (on average more than 10 points per day).
- If today’s weakness holds, the SPX should come off of the overbought levels that it has been experiencing.
- Gap downs in the market, like we are seeing today, are often hard to maintain, and usually attracts dip-buyers. Be very cautious and don’t get overly excited about the early morning action in the markets.
- This isn’t the time to add new short positions – you do that on bounces.
- Breaking through the 1390’s will be difficult as there are plenty of separate resistance levels in that area.
- Safe to assume that volume will be light this week as it was on Monday and Tuesday, as many traders/investors will take the remainder of the week off.
- Volume in general continues to be relatively light during the past month of trading.
- SPX has now made new highs on the uptrend that began on 6/4.
- 30-minute chart continues to highlight the need for a pullback in the short-term.
- Below 1306-1308 price level, will nullify the current rally off of the 6/4 lows.
- Would represent a ‘lower-low’ in the market.
- VIX dropping hard and is now below 18.
My Opinions & Trades:
- Good chance that today’s weakness may take me out of 1-2 long positions.
- Will look to add new long positions on the early morning weakness.
- Closed out NFLX yesterday at 77.68 from $70.00 for a 11% gain.
- Covered WLT at $47.05 from $45.81 for a -2.7% loss.
- Bought WBC at $53.98 yesterday.
- Bought on Tuesday .
- May add an additional 1-2 positions, as well as close out any non-performers.
- If UA continues to struggle, it will be a prime candidate for me to scrap.
- I don’t see really any strong evidence to be short “right-now”. Don’t short the market right now expecting the market to come to its senses. It could be a long painful wait.
- Speaking from experience.
- Still long WNR at $20.51, CMG at 378.44, UA at $93.09, HD at $51.50 .
- Increasing my stop-loss in WNR to $22.70 locking in 10.7% in gains and providing plenty of wiggle-room for the stock.
Charts:
