Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): Challenger Job-Cut Report (7:30am), Jobless Claims (8:30am), Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index (9:45am), Quarterly Services Survey (10am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am)
Premarket Update (Updated 6:30am eastern):
- US Futures are bouncing this morning – up moderately.
- Asian markets are trading 1.6% higher.
- European markets are trading 1.7% higher.
Technical Outlook (S&P):
- S&P is looking at 1% in gains heading into the open off of Greek PSI news and Fed sterilization rumors (i.e. more QE).
- If this morning’s early strength holds, Tuesday’s sell-off will be completely recovered.
- VIX index (aka Fear index) dropped back below 20 yesterday which tends to be more bullish.
- The S&P looks to recapture the 20-day moving average and potentially the 10-day moving average at 1363.
- 30-minute chart on the S&P needs to make new recovery highs to improve its standing. Currently it still looks very toppy.
My Opinions:
- The dip buying that I said was absent on Tuesday’s sell-off is back in full force yesterday and again today.
- The market at this point could literally rally on any piece of bad news – perhaps even on news of a Greece default.
- Fed announcing a new form of QE yesterday, just shows you how difficult it is for anyone to short this market. Fighting the Fed, when they act this aggressive, ends up being a losing battle.
- For more than 10 years, the first two weeks of March have been horrible for the bulls – seeing strong sell-offs (with the exception being 2010 and the second week of 2009). Second half of the month has fared much better. It is an incredible phenomenon.
- I’m using January-February of last year as my roadmap for trading this market – price action is nearly identical, as is the time frames too. With that being said, it is likely we see a pullback of worth here in the very near future.
Chart:
