Current Bias: 100% Cash

Economic Reports Due Out (Times are EST): ICSC Goldman Store Sales (7:45am)

My Observations and What to Expect:

  • Futures are slightly lower heading into today’s open. 
  • Asia, on average, finished about 2% higher, while Europe is currently trading 0.6% lower. 
  • S&P managed to bust right through the 50-day moving average, with no resistance at all. 
  • If the S&P can rally an additional 16 points, to 1210, would mark an ideal level to begin re-shorting this market in a significant way. It marks the resistance lined formed by connecting the highs of other recent highs, and where the market began going south again at. 
  • This is the first time that we’ve been above the 10,20 & 50-day moving averages since 7/19, which was before the huge sell-off began. 
  • Ultimately, if we can break above 1230, that will probably become the point where I become comfortable with accepting the notion that the market has bottomed. Until then, my approach will continue to remain cautious in my approach to these markets. 
  • In 4.1 hours of trading, the S&P has rallied 120 points. I think it is safe to say that we are clearly overbought at this point. 
  • Volume was extremely weak yesterday – mainly due to the Columbus day holiday.
  • The past couple of weeks reminds me of late 2008, when the market would experience a series of massive sell-offs followed by a significant rally or two.
  • Make sure that whatever you do, that you protect the gains that you have, and be ready for sudden and quick reversals in this market.
  • My Conclusion: Bulls are in control of the market at the moment, no doubt about it. But as has been the case for the past 2.5 months of trading, that cannot be trusted. This market will be showing us very soon whether it has bottomed or if it is just another upside hiccup. 

2ab57c72397e3f2d8d89ca25.png (600×625)

Here Are The Actions I’m Taking:

  • Traded Direxion Small Cap Bear 3x (TZA) for a 2.5% gain and Direxion Small Cap Bull 3x (TNA) for a 0.3% loss. Traded ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 (SDS) for a 0.7% gain, and Lowes (LOW) for a 0.9% loss. Small gain overall on the day. Chop-fest after the mornings initial gains. 
  • Will continue to trade TZA and TNA, but also look to short some breakout plays as well that start to falter early on.
  • I’m looking to take advantage of the market possibly being weak today, and will focus on the short side of the trade. 
  • I will watch market action early-on to see the behavior on the 50-day MA test before jumping into anything. 
  • Follow me in the SharePlanner Chat-Room today for all my live trades and ideas (as well as everyone else’s).