What’s the bearish argument here?
SPY improved 75 cents on a $571 ETF in terms of body on the daily candle – still a very tight trading range. And up until the last seconds of the trading session it looked like it would be another doji candle.
Some will say we have a hanging man candle that should be considered a bearish argument for stocks, but that candle isn’t even above the highs from last Thursday – so it’s not something I would get interested in here.
Besides, we’ve had bearish candles both in August, and so far in September, and I’m still not seeing much eagerness from retailers to jump ship here.
Plus European and Asian central banks are cutting rates, we have an upcoming election (highly doubt the-powers-that-be will get in the way of a rising market), Fed is cutting interest rates at all time highs, and slowing down the balance sheet run off.
Unless there is global thermonuclear war, I don’t see there being much weakness here. Doesn’t mean that I don’t think the market needs a break or should slow down, but my opinion doesn’t matter – all that matters is what the market is telling us, and right now, I can’t pin a bearish argument on this market here.
Obviously this can always change, but with the last four days of trading, the bears had an incredible opportunity to sink this market with the low volume and lack of buyers to absorb any selling pressures, and the sellers called in sick instead.
After the election though…All bets are off!
The lack of bear arguments is bearish?
This is kinda what scares me, or perhaps I’m just overthinking it, but really it is hard to find anyone that is bearish on this market, and if they are, they are suffering miserably right now. But if the market wanted to cause the most pain, it would be when the bears have given up or most desperate, and when the bulls are the most comfortable. That time is right now. So could the absence of a true bearish catalyst be the actual catalyst that no one is looking for? I’m always the most nervous when it feels like it is too easy.
How did I fare?
I added one new position today, which did absolutely nothing for me, but finish flat on the day. I wanted to add more, but with the market so slow and boring, I want to see a little more enthusiasm come from the buyers before I add additional exposure. Everything else did fine, but would like some more long exposure.
Become part of the Trading Block and get my trades, and learn how I manage them for consistent profits. With your subscription you will get my real-time trade setups via Discord and email, as well as become part of an incredibly helpful and knowledgeable community of traders to grow and learn with. If you’re not sure it is for you, don’t worry, because you get a Free 7-Day Trial. So Sign Up Today!
Hope to see you in there!
