Edgy has been tied up in the Bears’ basement for the past week, looking at his TNA position and re-evaluating his life.
Thanks to the TD Ameritrade server breakdown fiasco last Friday, I didn’t know I was even in TNA until an hour and a half later. At the time, I was up for a nice profit and considered getting out. I decided to let it ride while I left for a meeting, and by the time I came back it was down and never looking back.
I broke my rules (again) by not stopping out before it got carried away. TNA rode down $8 from my purchase price, a 24% decline!!! The only reason I stayed in was because I could see signs of a bounce already forming, and I KNEW the markets would regain these current levels before too long. Still, I broke my rules. I didn’t jump out when my instincts told me to, and I let my losses run long enough to affect me emotionally.
To add to my annoyance with TD Ameritrade, ProphetCharts in TOS has been down all week, and I have since become a fan of TC2000. I also put in an application to transfer accounts to Interactive Brokers, and I’ll be out of the game for the next week or two until the funds are accepted.
I got out of TNA yesterday so that I’ll be in cash during the transition. No sense in holding a volatile stock in and even more volatile market when you can’t touch it for a week!
Meanwhile, here’s my take on the markets:
We are clearly in a down channel now, and the moving averages are showing bearish pressure. But I am still under the opinion, for various reasons which I will not go into again right now, that this market is going to turn around and head up. This doesn’t mean I’ll jump the gun and go long and hold. This is still a day-traders’ market, and it’s guilty as bearish until proven otherwise.
But I’m keeping a close eye on the 1,120 level for the S&P 500. It’s still a good support level, and even this last penetration of it looked a bit like an exhaustion dip. The 34-MA is my favorite trendline. When we can stay above and even retest this level, expect the recovery to be well underway.
Anecdotally, I’ve noticed some changes that suggest the economy is improving. More trains are passing by the Edgy house during the wee hours of the morning, something that almost halted immediately after the crash in 2009! It’s my own little Transportation indicator. Also, advertising during my favorite show, APM’s Marketplace, have increased. The lack of those ads was another thing I noticed in 2009. Just a couple of examples, but I’m hoping real estate comes back soon!
Speaking of which, anyone interested in some near-beachfront property in Jacksonville Beach? Let’s make a deal!
