Bearish Divergences Warrants Caution

You could have skipped the last three weeks of trading and you would have come back to a market that is virtually unchanged. 

It hasn’t moved, it hasn’t gone anywhere, and Friday’s price action exemplified that with another light volume trading session. VIX spent most of the week below 10, and the T2108 (% of stocks trading above their 40-day moving average) is now trading at 46%. That is a horrible reading on the latter considering that SPX is only trading about a half percent from its all-time highs.

So yes, that is a glaring bearish divergence and in the days ahead, unless something changes to the upside for the bulls, I will be decreasing my long exposure. Simply put, with the market showing all of these bearish divergences under the surface, I would prefer not to be heavily long if this market decides to take a dump. Instead, I prefer to have little to no long exposure for such a scenario. 

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq remains, by far, the best index to be trading, as it continues to march higher to new all-time highs on a near, daily basis. On the other hand, the Russell Index continues to flop around unsure where it wants to go, but doing what it has spent most of 2017 doing and that is reverting back to the 50-day moving average. 

S&P 500 Chart

Current Stock Trading Portfolio Balance: 

• 6  Long positions

Recent Stock Trade Notables:

• Southwest Airlines (LUV): Long at $58.35, closed at 57.23 for a 1.9% loss.  
• Broadcom (AVGO): Long at $223.63, closed at $228.65 for a 2.2% profit. 
• Workday (WDAY): Long at 86.00, closed at 90.32 for a 5% profit. 
• Univar (UNVR): Long at $30.96, closed at $32.20 for a 4% profit.
• Alibaba Group (BABA): Long at $111.91, closed at $115.48 for a 3.2% profit. 
• Redhat (RHT): Long at $85.21, closed at $87.21 foor a 2.4% profit. 
• Darling Ingredients (DAR): Long at $15.19, closed at $14.90 for a 1.9% loss. 
• Apple (AAPL): Long at $143.82, closed at $147.11 for a 2.3% profit.
• Teradyne (TER): Long at $31.16, closed at $33.03 for a 6.0% profit.
• UPRO: Long at $92.75, closed at $94.78 for a 2.2% profit. 
• Murphy Oil (MUR): Long at $28.69, closed at $27.89 for a 2.7% loss.
• Las Vegas Sands (LVS): Long at $57.24, closed at $56.53 for a 1.2% loss.  
• UPRO: Long at $91.94, closed at $96.54 for a 5.0% profit.
• Alibaba Group (BABA): Long at $105.736, closed at $108.22 for a 2.4% profit. 
• Facebook (FB): Long at $134.27, Closed at $139.23 for a 3.7% profit. 
• CDW Corp (CDW): Long at $58.65, closed at $58.91 for a 2.7% loss. 
• Redhat (RHT): Long at $82.41, Closed at $83.53 for a 1.4% profit. 
• Ambarella (AMBA): Long at $57.15, Closed at $55.52 for a 2.8% loss. 
• Alibaba Group (BABA): Long at $104.73, closed at $106.05 for a 1.3% profit. 
• Broadcom (AVGO): Long at $218.63, Closed at $222.71 for a 1.9% profit. 
• American Airlines (AAL): Short at $44.76, Closed at $44.03 for a 1.6% profit.
• UPRO  (Day-Tade): Long at $95.35, closed at $96.50 for a 1.2% profit.
• OZRK: Long at $56.12, closed at $54.69 for a 2.5% loss. 
• FNSR: Long at $34.25, closed at $34.70 for a 1.3% profit. 
• UPRO  (Day-Tade): Long at $96.92, closed at $98.03 for a 1.2% profit. 
• JP Morgan Chase (JPM): Long at $87.21, closed at $89.67 for a 2.8% profit. 
• Chevron (CVX): Short at $110.03, covered at $111.85 for a 1.6% loss. 
• Flex Technologies (FLEX): Long at $15.62, closed at $16.57 for a 6.1% profit. 
• Baidu (BIDU): Long at $174.70, closed at $187.00 for a 7.0% profit. 
• Ollie’s Bargain Outlet: Long at 33.20, closed at $32.50 for a 2.1% loss. 
• Corning (GLW): Long at $26.98, closed at $27.45 for a 1.7% profit. 
• Illinois Tool Works (ITW): Long at $127.74, closed at $129.86 for a 1.7% profit. 
• Marriott Int’l (MAR): Long at $86.16, closed at $87.51 for a 1.6% profit.