Current Bias: 100% Cash

Economic Reports Due Out (Times are EST): Jobless Claims (8:30am), Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index (9:45am), Existing Home Sales (10am), Philadelphia Fed Survey (10am), Leading Indicators (10am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am)

Today’s Breakdown:

  • Futures are moderately higher heading into the  open. 
  • Asian markets were down about -1.4%, while Europe currently is trading about 0.5% lower. 
  • The S&P continues to consolidate (Day 4) above the previous downward channel it had been trading in. This is healthy market action, as it is allowing for it to work off overbought conditions without giving up much ground in the process. 
  • Since the mega sell-off began in late July, there has been little in the way of consolidation of any kind. 
  • On the weekly chart, the S&P is struggling to break through the 20-week moving average. 
  • S&P is continuing to struggle with breaking above and closing above the 1230 price level. Once it does though, it should provide a nice ‘pop’ in the indices. 
  • 10-day moving average crossed above the 50-day moving average for the first time since 8/2. Technically it doesn’t mean much, but does show that market conditions are becoming more favorable for the bulls.
  • Another major resistance barrier for the market will be the 1270 level where you have the 200-day moving average as well as the neckline resistance from the head and shoulders pattern that was formed earlier in the year.
  • The past few weeks reminds me of late 2008, when the market would experience a series of massive sell-offs followed by a significant rally, only to reverse course yet again.
  • Make sure that whatever you do, that you protect the gains that you have, and be ready for sudden and quick reversals in this market.
  • My Conclusion: This consolidation is favoring the bulls, and makes it more likely that we’ll bust through the 1230 level in short-term. 

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