If you saw futs overnight drop over 50 handles you probably assumed that today was going to be a real clown show for the market.

But then when you woke up, you probably found yourself rubbing your eyes again to make sure you weren’t being deceived when you saw /ES trading 10 points higher. 

It has been a crazy overnight session for the futures – here’s what I’m thiking and what I posted on Twitter last night:

On the Iran Attacks:

1. I don’t expect the United States to retaliate. No troops were killed. That gives the Trump Admin a way out of escalation.

2. In the end these were Iraqi bases. Not US bases, so if the troops are okay, a major response isn’t necessary.

3. Iran doesn’t want war either. Otherwise they would have attacked Israel too who they hate even more than the US and would have sent their missiles to a base even closer to the Iran border with more US troops, thereby inflicting more damage and potential casualty. 

4. No other country wants war, which the US can now use to increase the sanctions on Iran instead.

5. US can get more countries behind increased Iran sanctions if it means avoiding another full out war.

6. With President Trump not striking back with an attack of his own, he looks presidential and not a warmonger like past predecessors and what the Democrats has claimed him to be. He exceeds the low expectations of how he would respond in a potential conflict, and how he we he would drag us into World War III, and instead, substantially increases his chances at re-election.

I think Trump gets this, he doesn’t want to upset the stock market, which he watches on the regular, and if you don’t believe me, look no further than his tweet last night assuring everyone all was well:

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