There’s not a lot of reason to be short on this market… well that depends on the day of the week of course, because on Friday of last week and Monday of this week, things were starting to look grim. Since the debate, the market has been extremely bullish. And it is not because it is up or down, but because it continues to strike obvious bearish and bullish patterns nearly simultaneously that causes such conflict.
At the close of Monday, you were working with a bear flag pattern on the S&P 500 (SPX). At the close yesterday, you had a nice bullish engulfing candle pattern. In the meantime the market actually doesn’t go anywhere noteworthy, in terms of establishing a legitimate trend to follow.
This market could easily fall all over itself in the coming weeks, and I wouldn’t raise an eyebrow. As for right now, the Fed and the powers that be are doing everything it can to keep this market propped up in order to guarantee a Hillary presidency.
Personally, I think this market is setting itself up for another Brexit-like surprise come election night. People are only following polls of who are you voting for. What they don’t take into account is turnout, and I firmly believe that the republican turnout will dwarf the democrat turnout based on rally turnouts and the numbers seen during the primary. And if that ends up being the case, Trump will win in a landslide. Following this scenario, the market will have a massive sell-off immediately in the style of Brexit.
So be careful and be prepared and be ready to short.
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