Technical Outlook:

  • SPX sold off for a fifth straight day with a 50 point sell-off yesterday. 
  • SPX is only 14 points away from testing the August lows, which seems inevitable that it will be tested at this point. 
  • The volume from yesterday on SPY wasn’t as strong as I would have expected considering the intensity and depth of the sell-off. Instead it was just barely above average. 
  • Russell Index managed to break well below the August lows in a convincing fashion. 
  • T2108 (% of stocks trading above the 40-day moving average) dropped 37% down to 13%. However, well off of the August lows. 
  • 17% pop in the VIX closing at 27.63.
  • I have some concerns that the lack of new lows on T2108, and no-where near new high on the VIX, could ultimately lead to a bullish divergence for stocks. 
  • After selling off 140 points on SPX since the FOMC Statement 8 trading sessions ago, it is very possible we get at least a short-term bounce. 
  • Yesterday marked one of the few times we have had a gap at the open, followed by a strong move in the direction of the gap thereafter. 
  • There is more factors to consider now in the market besides, Yellen & interest rates, China Growth, Greece, etc. Now you have possible government shutdown due to Boehner resigning, and Yellen & health concerns. 
  • Seasonally speaking we are in the middle of a three week period in the market that is historically the weakest period of the trading year. 
  • The Fed has never raised interest rates at a point where the market was trading lower on the year. 
  • The large gaps in the market, the record number of stock buybacks, and ETFs that are constantly accumulating/dumping large chunks of stocks, and most importantly the high frequency trading, shows just how illiquid this market has become in recent years. These entities are the most responsible for the massive market swings that stocks incur each day. 


My Trades:

  • Covered BID yesterday at $32.48 for a 6.0% gain. 
  • Sold SDS yesterday at $24.12 for a 5.0% gain. 
  • Covered CCE yesterday at $46.73 for a 4.2% gain. 
  • Did not add any new swing-trades yesterday. 
  • 10% Short / 90% Cash
  • Remain short: CSCO at 25.52
  • Will look to play the market in either direction today. 
  • Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 9-29-15

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