Technical Outlook:

• Today’s market will be guided by the jobs report and how that will affect the decision making of the Fed regarding interest rate hikes at the September meeting. 
• Strong move out of SPX to the downside yesterday had SPX test the rising trend-line off of the July lows and marking the fourth down day in the last five days of trading. 
• What is most surprising to me is that the market is down 9 out of the past 13 trading sessions, yet the VIX is only at 13.77 (after a 10.1% move yesterday) and SPX down 2.2% during that time. It is not what I would call a move with conviction. 
• Consider in late June that SPX moved 3.2% in just four days. 
• And that is what gives traders such headaches in this market is that while the long side offers few profit opportunities, the bears don’t have the conviction, at least not as of yesterday, to drive this market decisively lower. As a result it keeps traders very exposed to a dead cat bounce/short squeeze with limited profit opportunities when shorting. 
• Perfect example of this is in the last 13 trading sessions, where 9 of them have been bearish, the market has not formed a short-term lower-low. Instead it made a higher-low and held a short-term trend line as well. 
• Strong uptick in volume yesterday with the reading coming in above average on SPY. 
• Somewhat of a triangle pattern forming on the 30 minute chart of SPX. No clear direction. 
• This is starting to become a regular phenomenon where the market is off to a nice start, the bears come in during the east coast lunch hour, and drive the market downward for the remainder of the day. 
• Huge convergence of moving averages right at current price level – this has has had a mildly bullish effect on the market the previous occurrences. 
• The key for the bears will be to break the 7/27 lows. 
• Solid support for SPX at the rising 200-day moving average. 
• With a higher-low off of the 200-day moving average and possibly a lower-high formed on Friday, you essentially have the making of a range inside of a range. 
• My biggest ongoing concern with the market right now is the inability to establish new, clear-cut all-time highs that leads to an expansion of price as well. Instead SPX gets bogged down in the 2120-2130’s range and reverses course each time. 

My Trades:

• Did not close out any positions yesterday. 
• Did not add any new positions to the portfolio yesterday. 
• 30% Long / 70% cash. 
• Remain long: QLD at 77.84, FB at 94.71, MSFT at 47.48.
• Will look to add 1-2 new positions today if the market can find its footing again. Otherwise, I will manage my current positions and consider some short opportunities. 
• Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX: